Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.778847 22.987588 24.258264 25.698901 27.293430 29.011879 31.014190
2026-01-11 20.262694 21.959431 23.828443 26.059202 28.675517 31.680894 35.446015
2026-01-18 19.193516 21.142799 23.353974 26.082824 29.411068 33.410190 38.697172
2026-01-25 18.165473 20.253917 22.675708 25.742229 29.599687 34.407823 41.060945
2026-02-01 17.290445 19.464393 22.030219 25.347940 29.630375 35.138546 43.074525
2026-02-08 16.480496 18.695533 21.347236 24.835217 29.434995 35.511520 44.581693
2026-02-15 15.963816 18.249501 21.025329 24.741205 29.752224 36.562885 47.130443
2026-02-22 15.701319 18.097469 21.052613 25.084832 30.658788 38.482789 51.186292
2026-03-01 15.192155 17.608540 20.620157 24.784100 30.641216 39.055161 53.182926
2026-03-08 14.524711 16.891832 19.860956 23.999506 29.883960 38.460873 53.175538
2026-03-15 14.123162 16.500512 19.508627 23.748529 29.868105 38.972214 55.082038
2026-03-22 14.016715 16.483443 19.643817 24.170568 30.848989 41.092514 60.100577
2026-03-29 13.771723 16.291206 19.555965 24.301942 31.448734 42.735170 64.687286
2026-04-05 13.596116 16.184035 19.578079 24.591080 32.310766 44.905846 70.777979
2026-04-12 13.344635 15.963701 19.431833 24.620593 32.759143 46.406167 75.807067
2026-04-19 12.995096 15.598975 19.070119 24.310357 32.637311 46.878410 78.664954
2026-04-26 12.651190 15.231084 18.690166 23.953232 32.412483 47.135888 81.077582
2026-05-03 12.291069 14.831012 18.251640 23.487714 31.978562 46.962163 82.411421
2026-05-10 12.071406 14.616925 18.068665 23.402316 32.172841 47.993667 87.043965
2026-05-17 11.987037 14.585647 18.143396 23.714404 33.059758 50.466372 96.284990
2026-05-24 11.730230 14.307491 17.852821 23.441288 32.910640 50.840580 99.680435
2026-05-31 11.352933 13.853149 17.295376 22.727678 31.948852 49.460253 97.457228
2026-06-07 11.134197 13.616361 17.048782 22.499081 31.838425 49.853665 100.915578